
I figured most people know the optimal policy for this card by now, but getting it into a review of the card itself will help out newer people.
TL;DR:If you are using this to run only two weapons and benefit consistently from high XP weapons, you should mulligain discarding anything that is not a weapon if you didn't open with one, and then on your first turn spend all your actions drawing, and then your second turn spending two drawing and then playing this card.
Most modern guardians run 2 weapons (maybe 3 if a signature is a weapon) and two of this early, and then sometimes going down to one of this on Stick to the plan because, if you use it correctly, you will have a 90% chance of getting one of your two weapons in the first two turns using this card.
If you 'hard mulligan' (discarding literally any card that isn't your weapon if you didn't open with a weapon) you have a 55% chance to find one of the two copies of your weapon in your deck. If you don't find it in that pool, and then go for it with prepared for the worst, you have a 55% chance to find one of the copies in the top 9 cards. This means that you have an 80% chance to find the weapon, but that means 1-2 games a scenario you will fail to have your weapons in the first two turns of the game, which can get... rough, especially because if this card misses you didn't thin your deck and now will have a hellish time finding your guns.
But if you instead take your first turn entirely drawing cards, and then on your second turn draw 2 cards and play this, your odds increase, and Prepared for the worst plus the draws will find your weapon 79% of the time. Combined with the hard mulligain and you will be starting with your weapon, which means you find those guns 91% of the time. If you really slow-roll and play this turn 3 (perhaps playing an ally on your 6th action, but still getting your upkeep draw) you will nab it 95% of the time, meaning you will proably never fail to get your gun by turn 3 in any campaign, though this may lean on your flex-evader in a 4 man group.
Compare to just trying to draw into your weapon manually using the same policy. On your mulligan you got the same odds, but if you spend an entire two turns drawing you will only find a copy of your guns around 40% of the time, meaning in total you have about a 20% chance to brick out on the first two turns. So you are probably going to fail to find your weapon once, maybe twice in your campaign before turn 3.
What is worse is that the realities where you brick your mulligan can be far worse. You will fail your mulligain about 50% of the time. If you do, you still find it by the end of turn 2 50% of the time, but you have a 20% chance to take 5 turns to find your gun, meaning that a little under once a campaign you will be unarmed for half a scenario, if you can even afford to spend 4 turns doing nothing but drawing! Once you need to start doing a bad Nathaniel Cho impression your rate of finding your weapon becomes much worse and it becomes realistic you will never see a copy in a game if you need to give up by the end of turn 2.
And if you fire this off turn 1, you have a 60% chance of bricking there, and if that happens you enter the 'draw and pray' statistical reality and suddenly you start risking trauma once or twice in your campaign because your gun never shows up. So really, take it slow and don't Hail Mary Prepared For the Worst turn 1 hoping your weapons are in the top third of your deck, get it to the point where they only need to be in the top half and this card will make you a much happier camper.
This card is a huge difference maker in 2 weapon decks if used right, it is probably Guardian's most meta-defining card to the point it makes it really hard for the designers to make any sort of 'mid-grade' or 'backup' weapon in Guardian and heavily warps the card pool, but if you use it wrong it is going to make you miserable compared to running 4 weapons.